January Blog (and a Few Grand National Observations)

4/1/24

Happy New Year. Wishing all blog readers, members and non-members alike, a prosperous and peaceful 2024….. and it would also be quite nice to find the Grand National winner while we are at it!

To that end, I wrote my first Grand National preview (later than usual this season) in yesterday’s Ante-Post Focus column finding a contender that I think can enhance his claims in the coming months so I hope that they keep him under wraps until after the weights have been released as at the moment he would be set to race with under 11st on his back.

My biggest two ‘ins’ to the Grand National since the changes to the race however are not weights-related anymore, but youth (a 1-2-3-4 last season for second-season chasers) so six of the last eight winners were first or second-season chasers and ten years since a winner last aged in double digits when previously it was the norm, and also the officially ‘well-in’ angle, which is now a biggie.

Corach Rambler was one of just two officially ‘well-in’ horses last year being 10lb ahead of his racing weight on the day so five of the last 16 Grand National winners have been officially at least 5lb ‘well-in’ from few to try plus others have gone close, notably Sunnyhillboy beaten a nose. Other ‘well-in’ horses, though not to the tune of 5lb+ have also been placed of late, the 2022 second and third, for example. Big stat, that, for 40-runner fields. That’s how normalised the race has now become.

Of course, it’s 34 runners this season so the likes of Christian Williams (Kitty’s Light is rated 146) and Nicky Henderson (Mister Coffey is rated 142 having led to the final fence off 145 in last year’s race) could be biting their nails as to whether they will get a run or be balloted out. Number 34 on the racecard in the last three runnings has been officially rated 146, 145 and 143 so anything rated under that lowest figure seems unlikely to get a run, especially as I fancy that we’ll get more higher-rated horses entered now that their connections know that there are fewer light weights, so I’d be erring more towards 145 than 143 of getting a run. Monbeg Genius (147) is also not an absolute certainty to get in, though likely.

I have been a little quieter than usual recommending ante-post bets for the Cheltenham Festival this season (my plan this year is more Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) recommendations than ‘all-in’) but they will start to ratchet up soon enough in the weekly columns. I see that William Hill are already NRNB.

I am actually tempted to take in an Irish tour of Cheltenham Preview evenings this March for the first time in a good decade. I used to attend plenty of Irish events when travelling the country flogging my book for Weatherbys back in the day and then writing up reports of what was said for members the following morning so it was all go.

Therefore, it would be nice to just enjoy the craic this year with a relaxed tour of the best preview nights in Ireland rather than lugging boxes of books around the country and sitting in quiet corners selling them (and trying to understand the Cork accent!) whilst scribbling down endless quotes from the panels. How many panels can Johnny Dineen and Davy Russell appear on between them this year?

Hard to believe that it will be the 25^th anniversary of The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide this year, written by Paul Ferguson for the last few years and after Matt Tombs had a stint, after I decided that the first 16 editions were enough for me. From the book sales plus all the online spin-offs, I’m calculating that it must have reaped in well in excess of £1 million since I came up with idea back in the summer of 1999. From small acorns.

It’s bloody hard work putting that together and I certainly don’t envy Paul in the next few weeks. To be honest, it’s much better now than when I was a one-man band putting it together as trends-related copy has been elevated to a different level since I used to get the old Form Books out and count up facts for stats on my fingers.

On the sporting front we’ve had a good start to the year with some decent results on New Year’s Day between Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and then my 9/1 ante-post pick from the autumn, Luke Humphries, winning the World Darts Championship yesterday. I argued ahead of him lining up for the World Grand Prix final that if he could win that first TV major, the floodgates would open and that has certainly proved to be the case as the new World Number One and World Champion from Alexandra Palace has now won the last four televised events.

It’s a quick turnaround at Ally Pally as The Masters snooker begins on Sunday so I’ll cover that second most important tournament in the sport in the next General Sports column and the following week Carl Redden returns to give his bets for the Australian Open tennis.

January also sees the NFL playoffs and, so far, well done to Andy Richmond for putting up the San Francisco 49ers at 10/1 pre-season and the Baltimore Ravens at 9/1 in early November to win the Super Bowl as they are the Number One seeds in the NFC and AFC divisions so have a bye to the last eight and then home-field advantage up until the Super Bowl. As such they are now 9/4 and 100/30 respectively to be lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas on February 11^th.