October Blog - New-Look Jumps Season Service

1/10/24

After a summer at grass, now that we are into October, I am back in full training ahead of the start of what will be this website’s tenth season for my Jumps Season Service 2024/25 which starts on October 15th and will be more of a ‘Cheltenham Plus’ service going forward, so extending my coverage of the Cheltenham Festival build up whilst reducing some other output. Ten years, wow, time flies!

In this return of the monthly blogs after five months off, I have outlined (1) what content this Jumps Season Service will entail, (2) offered my views on the changes to the Cheltenham Festival (why not as virtually everyone else has!) and (3) given my trends for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Jumps Season Service 2024/25

So, here’s my plan for the new-look coverage.

We enjoyed another very good Cheltenham Festival last season showing a level stakes profit of 22 points (which would be higher still to advised stakes as the only maximum bet won when advised at 3/1 returning at 5/4) so taking us up to 149 points LSP overall. The first of my weekly Cheltenham columns this season will be uploaded on Thursday, October 31^st. The columns will go daily for the week leading up to and including the Festival as usual but, for the first time, I will also provide Cheltenham columns every other day in the penultimate week before Cheltenham after the handicap weights have been published, so an increased-to-30 Cheltenham columns in total.

The biggest change to my Jumps Season Service is to now cover the weekend Race Previews in a much more condensed format at the end of the weekly Cheltenham column which will be moving from Fridays to Thursdays at 7pm, so still after we know the Saturday declarations. Rather than trawl through all the content in those lengthy columns, I know that many members just scrolled down to the final ‘in summary’ to cut to the chase anyway, so basically it will be an extended version of that final ‘in summary’ as part of the weekly Cheltenham columns, hence ‘Cheltenham Plus’. What can I say, I’m getting older!

Regarding extending the overall Cheltenham Festival coverage, in addition to the extra columns the penultimate week, the intention is to attend more events to report back from in the build up, including a new Irish Cheltenham Festival Preview Evenings Tour the fortnight beforehand ahead of my usual British Cheltenham Festival Preview Evenings Tour the following week, so looking to report back from around ten events in total. It will be knackering but fun! I am even running my own Cheltenham Preview Evening for the first time this season on March 4^th at my local pub/sports bar (The Stirrup Cup in Barton Seagrave) in aid of the Action For A-T Charity where I will be hosting and am delighted to say that Richard Hoiles, Andy Holding (Oddschecker columnist) and Andrew Mount (Racing & Football Outlook columnist amongst others) have agreed to be panellists.

The Ante Post Focus column (outside of Cheltenham) which was previously uploaded on Wednesdays will also move to form part of the new Thursday column BUT only for when I have any recommendations for races further ahead in the future rather than the upcoming weekend, as obviously that’s no longer ante-post after the declarations stage. This certainly won’t be weekly, only for when I have something lined up. Also, as part of the new extended Thursday column, I will also be adding weekly updates for the Grand National for the first time as I would for any race at the Cheltenham Festival.

With regards to the weekly General Sports column on Sunday mornings, I had originally intended to ditch it between my busy months of November-March, or considerably shorten and incorporate it into the new Thursday column, but it seems to be more popular than I imagined so I have now reversed that decision so it will continue weekly in its usual 10.00 a.m. slot on Sundays in exactly the same format. This column will also feature the best of the Irish Sunday racing and, of course, the weekly build up to Eurovision after the Swiss did the business for us this year when recommended at 16/1+ continuing our terrific run in that contest.

Therefore, the full weekly schedule when we properly get back into the swing of things will be as follows:

Tuesday (7pm): Andy Richmond’s ‘Beating The Bias’ (moved from Mondays).

Thursday (7pm): ‘Cheltenham Plus’ column including more-streamlined weekend views, non-Cheltenham ante-post recommendations (as and when) and Grand National updates.

Sunday (10am): General Sports column incorporating the best of Sunday Irish racing weekly.

Cheltenham Festival Changes

On the whole the changes to the Festival announced by the racecourse last week were greeted very positively, the exception being, surprise surprise, Michael O’Leary!

As expected, the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase has gone altogether. Good. That should mean more competitive runnings of the Arkle and Brown Advisory. People arguing otherwise - I just don’t get them at all. Ballyburn, for instance, will be in one or the other as his connections certainly won’t be giving Cheltenham the elbow whereas I would have priced his most likely Festival target as being the Turners before it was consigned to history. I can see why O’Leary isn’t happy as that means the most obvious Cheltenham Festival target for his best prospect, Brighterdaysahead, is no longer there so, as when he made public comments about Tiger Roll’s handicap mark for the Grand National so then couldn’t be seen to be going back on those and threw his toys out of the pram by taking the x2 winner out of the race, I expect him not to send this high-quality mare to any race at this season’s Cheltenham now to make his protest heard louder.

After an absence of just four years, the Novices’ Handicap Chase returns but with two changes; no top-end ratings cap and making it a limited handicap. It was formerly a 0-145 but the reason for not capping it this time is to still give connections of a novice who they think is an out-and-out 2½ miler the chance to run at Cheltenham and not wait for Aintree or Fairyhouse. I’d have preferred that not to be case as it still gives the best novices a third option at the meeting rather a straight decision of Arkle or Brown Advisory but c’est la vie, you can’t have everything I suppose. I doubt that very highly rated 2m4f hurdlers (say the 163-rated Impaire Et Passe) will run here though as they would have to give loads of weight away.

Turning the National Hunt Chase into a 0-145 limited handicap has got to help the Brown Advisory as it’s been stealing legitimate contenders from that Grade 1 staying novice chase for a good few years like Corbetts Cross, Stattler, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Galvin, Tiger Roll, Minella Rocco, Native River, Back In Focus etc. Plus it also now open to professional jockeys so this is effectively a completely new race so forget all previous National Hunt Chase trends. Being the oldest race at the Festival, it is clearly important to the racecourse that they wanted to retain the race title but it had already undergone four different face lifts since the turn of the century and now, this is by far the biggest of the lot. It was back in the late 1980s that Francois Doumen remarked that it was only the British that could come up with race over as far as 4m and then also restrict to novice chasers and amateur riders! In this day and age of the optics - absolutely no way then! The race distance was reduced in 2020 and now it is open to professionals, plus it’s also now going to be a limited handicap. The Amateur Jockeys’ Association described the change as “bitterly disappointing” but, at the so-called Olympics of the sport, it can certainly be argued that three races restricted to amateur riders (in name only many of them to be fair) was one or two too many anyway.

I am in the minority here as would have liked to seen the Cross Country Chase remain a conditions’ race but in making it a limited handicap, that still favours the class acts so I suspect that class will still ‘out’, especially in this format of race when they crawl given all the twists and turns and then sprint so weight carried isn’t as important as in standard handicaps. It should still attract classier horses as it acts a perfect trial timings-wise for the Grand National plus they doddle around for the first 3m so horses don’t have a very hard race either ahead of Aintree.

As for the Pertemps Final, to make the qualifiers more competitive (and arguably the Final a tad more interesting), a new rule brought in this season is that any winner of a qualifier will be assured of a run in the Final provided that they would be racing in the handicap, in other words no more than 28lb behind the declared top weight who is set to carry 12st. Some winners of qualifying races have been balloted out as weren’t in the top 24. An interesting move that one day could come in for the Grand National for specific races, maybe?

As for the non-novice handicaps which novices have enjoyed loads of success of late (won over half of them in the last five years), to try and negate that, horses must now have run in four chases to run in the Ultima, Plate, Kim Muir and Grand Annual and five to contest the Coral Cup, County Hurdle or Martin Pipe - so one more than was the case last year. This move should also ensure that the Grade 1 novice hurdles will also be more competitive as many leading novices head to a handicap instead to avoid the best of the Mullins novices in the main, and now that has become a little more difficult for them to do so. Can only be a good move, this.

The final change is that penalties have been dispensed with in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle which was a no-brainer. In the last year or two, some connections have been getting cuter to this so were preparing for the race in lesser contests so not to pick up a penalty. It certainly helped Golden Ace to win it back in March as, on the figures, she came out as only third-best behind the penalised pair of Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy who were both giving her 5lb. This move should also make the mares’ novices’ hurdle pattern in the build up more competitive.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

Since my last blog back in April, I have stuck up ante-post recommendations on two events that are still in play - Keely Hodgkinson at 11/4 for SPOTY with a saver on Lando Norris at 50/1 (now 4/9 and 4/1) and Al Riffa each-way at 25/1 for the Arc who is trading at just around half those odds now, so I have to be hopeful. Here are my Arc trends ahead of Sunday’s race:

No one is pretending that this season’s running is a stellar Arc with City Of Troy (waits for The Breeders’ Cup Classic), Economics (waits for the Champion Stakes) Goliath, Calandagan and the x7 Group 1 winner Rebel’s Romance (ineligible being geldings) all absent but that doesn’t mean we can’t still have a good winner.

With the race being so open in their absence, we are set for a biggish field with many looking to take full advantage which will be important for followers of draw stats. As many as 20 of the last 26 Arcs have been won by horses drawn between 1-8 (and 15 of the last 22 were drawn between 1-6). Stalls 2 and 6 have been particularly lucky with six wins apiece since 1980.

So, in a big field and especially on a decent surface, a high stall is usually not good news in a race where horses racing out wide are giving away ground with right-hand bends aplenty. Take last year’s running for example where in a 15-runner contest, the best finishing position that any of the sextet drawn in double figures could manage was seventh. There is a fresh strip of ground not used since July being opened up against the rail and a five-metre cutaway will be in operation for the final two furlongs favouring lower-drawn horses all the more.

True, Dalakhani, Sakhee, Treve and Torquator Tasso overcame an outside draw but they did so, aided by holding or soft ground giving greater opportunity to work their way into the race so draw stats are not so important in this instance. Golden Horn overcame stall 14 of 17 on good ground having tracked over quickly to gain a prominent position.

Between 1986-2006, it was three-year-old colts that were all the rage winning 16 of the 21 runnings but fillies/mares have fared far better since winning eight of the last 13 editions. Thei hopes this season look to be the Prix Vermeille 1-2, Bluestocking (needs to be supplemented) and Aventure plus the five-timer-chasing Mqse De Sevigne who has yet to run over 1m4f.

France have won 69 runnings of the 102 runnings including two of the last five courtesy in Waldgeist and Sottsass who were beaten in the previous year’s running. In fact, four of the last ten winners contested the race 12 months earlier. Fantastic Moon (may not run if the ground is too soft) and Haya Zark were unplaced in last year’s Arc.

Mqse De Sevigne looks like being one of three challengers for Andre Fabre who is bidding for a remarkable ninth Arc success. His big hope though is the Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Niel winner, Sosie, who has taken a significant step forward for the move up to 1m4f and has been ante-post favourite since turning Prix du Jockey-Club form round with Look De Vega on Trials Day with Delius splitting the pair for Jean-Claude Rouget who has won two of the last four Arc’s.

The one thing that you can say about French-based trainers is that they treat trials as trials and not a lot more so both Sosie and Look De Vega can be expected to improve on their runs three weeks earlier. Before fillies/mares started to take over, the Niel was the key guide, but no winner of that race has followed up in the Arc now since the Fabre-trained Rail Link in 2006. All five of Fabre’s three-year-old Arc winners prepped in the Niel. Fabre especially uses trials as trials - even his deeply-impressive Arc winner Peintre Celebre got beaten in the Niel and his great Montjeu only won by a (cosy) head, so for Sosie to win so well in that trial bodes well for his chances.  

The late-developing three-year-old Sagamix (1998) was one of Fabre’s eight winners when having just his fourth career start and therefore his first run in a Group 1. Since then, only Solemia of Arc winners had not won at the highest level beforehand. It is also rare for an Arc-winning three-year-old not to have won a classic earlier in the season.

Aidan O’Brien’s main hope looks to be Los Angeles, who is bidding to give his trainer a third Arc success. However, O’Brien has yet to win the race with a three-year-old despite over 30 attempts. Dylan Thomas and Found won as four-year-olds but the best placing that O’Brien has achieved with a three-year-old is only third and his best three-year-old won’t be here this year.

Three of the last 16 Derby winners have won the Arc but with City Of Troy heading to the States instead, Epsom is represented by his stablemate and third-placed-finisher, Los Angeles, who went on to beat Sunway in the Irish Derby and then became the first horse since the early 1980s to win the Great Voltigeur under a 5lb penalty. The St Leger looked his for the taking but in sidestepping a gilt-edged opportunity in that classic to prep for Longchamp over an inadequate 1m2f instead in the Irish Champion Stakes, that tells us how much the Coolmore team think that he has developed into a proper Group 1 horse over 1m4f since early June.

Just the one Japanese-trained contender this year in Shin Emperor who, alongside Los Angeles, ran a very encouraging trial in the Irish Champion Stakes over 1m2f - a trip considered to be in the sharp side for both when they were a running-on third and fourth behind Economics and Auguste Rodin. The Irish Champion Stakes has the best recent current-season guide featuring four of the last 15 winners.

There have been higher-class Japanese contenders than this three-year-old which have just come up short so they still go in search of their first Arc victory despite a plethora of other big-race wins on the world stage. Everything is relative, however, and this wouldn’t be as strong an Arc as on most of those occasions so Shin Emperor has a fighting chance back up to 1m4f.

The leading owner is Juddmonte who look set to be represented by the King George runner-up, Bluestocking, hoping to go one place better than their Westover who was runner-up in the same two races last season. Her owners have won the Arc with Rainbow Quest, Dancing Brave, Rail Link, Workforce and Enable (x2).

Of the 24 winners this century, 18 had won last time out and 14 had run at Longchamp before - stats that look around par for the course. Ace Impact burst one long-standing trend in victory last season, however, as he was the first Arc winner having his first run over 1m4f since Saumarez in 1990.

The Yorkshire Oaks has produced two winners and an unlucky second in the last seven years in Alpinista, Enable and Sea Of Class but won’t be represented this time and neither will the Aga Khan who has won the Arc on three occasions this century with Sinndar, Dalakhani and Zarkava and supplied many a placed horse to boot.

Also absent this year will be the race’s leading jockey, Frankie Dettori, plus contenders aged 6+ as none stood their ground. Alpinista joined Waldgeist and Marienbard as five-year-old winners this century when she won in 2022 but we have to go all the way back to 1932 to find the only winner aged over five.

Positives:

Drawn 1-8

Fillies/Mares

Ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes

Trained by Andre Fabre

Owned by Juddmonte

Aged three or four

Last-time-out winner

Negatives:

Drawn very high (especially if good ground)

Failed to win a Group 1

Yet to run over 1m4f

Aidan O’Brien-trained three-year-olds

Three-year-olds that have not won a European Derby/Oaks

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